Prediction of gestational diabetes mellitus at first trimester in low-risk pregnancies

We aimed to assess the relationship among the sex hormone-binding globulin (SHBG), homeostasis model assessment (HOMA), glycosylated hemoglobin (HbA1c), and cholesterol panel values to predict subsequent gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) in low-risk pregnancies.

Thirty-eight pregnant women with GDM and 295 low-risk pregnant women without GDM were included in this study. Maternal blood samples were obtained during the first trimester examination to determine the SHBG, HbA1c, fasting blood glucose, insulin, thyroid stimulating hormone (TSH), free thyroxine, total cholesterol, triglycerides (TG), high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) levels. The variables that exhibited statistically significant differences between the groups and independent predictors for GDM were examined using logistic regression analysis. The risk of developing GDM, according to cutoff values, was determined using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis.

The SHBG, HOMA, LDL, and TG levels were found to be the significant independent markers for GDM [adjusted odds ratio (OR) = 0.991; 95% confidence interval (CI), 0.986-995; OR = 1.56; 95% CI, 1.24-1.98; OR = 1.02; 95% CI, 1.01-1.04; and OR = 1.01; 95% CI, 1.00-1.02, respectively]. The HbA1c, body mass index, and mean arterial pressure values were nonindependent predictors of GDM. The areas under the ROC curve used to determine the predictive accuracy of SHBG, HOMA, TG, and LDL-C for development of GDM were 0.73, 0.75, 0.70, and 0.72, respectively. For a false positive rate of 5% for the prediction of GDM, the values of the sensitivities were 21.1, 26.3, 21.1, and 18.4%, respectively.

The HOMA, SHBG, TG, and LDL-C levels are independent predictors for subsequent development of GDM in low-risk pregnancies, but they exhibit low sensitivity.