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Assessing the Expected Value of Research Studies in Reducing Uncertainty and Improving Implementation Dynamics
Sabine E Grimm1, Simon Dixon2, John W Stevens2
1Department of Clinical Epidemiology and Medical Technology Assessment, Maastricht University Medical Center, Maastricht, Netherlands (SEG).
Summary
Dynamic health technology assessment (HTA) models, incorporating expert beliefs on diffusion, significantly increase the estimated value of research. This approach improves implementation estimates and complements existing HTA methods for better recommendations.
Area of Science:
- Health Technology Assessment (HTA)
- Decision Analysis
- Health Economics
Background:
- Low implementation of cost-effective health technologies is a persistent challenge in healthcare systems.
- Current health technology assessment (HTA) methods often overlook the dynamic nature of implementation.
- Realistic implementation estimates are crucial for effective HTA.
Purpose of the Study:
- To extend existing HTA methods by incorporating research's impact on implementation and uncertainty reduction.
- To develop a dynamic model for assessing the value of research, considering diffusion dynamics based on expert beliefs.
- To evaluate the influence of further research on implementation and evidence strength.
Main Methods:
- Utilized expected value of sample information (EVSI) and specific implementation measures.
- Incorporated diffusion theory and expert belief elicitation to model implementation dynamics.
- Applied a dynamic expected value of research (EVR) framework to a preterm birth screening technology case study.
- Compared dynamic EVR results with static analysis.
Main Results:
- Dynamic implementation estimates based on expert beliefs significantly impacted the estimated value of research.
- Static implementation assumptions in HTA can lead to inaccurate value assessments.
- Including research's effect on implementation increased EVR compared to EVSI alone.
Conclusions:
- Dynamic EVR, integrating diffusion theory and expert elicitation, enhances HTA by improving implementation dynamics assessment.
- This approach offers valuable insights for research recommendations within HTA.
- The proposed methodology represents a significant advancement in HTA methods.
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