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Published on: February 15, 2017
Geographical Clusters of Rape in the United States: 2000-2012
Raid Amin1, Nicole S Nabors1, Arlene M Nelson1
1Department of Mathematics and Statistics, University of West Florida, Pensacola, FL, USA.
Statistics and Public Policy (Philadelphia, Pa.)
|January 13, 2017
Summary
This study maps reported rape cases across the USA, identifying geographical clusters of high rape rates and varying arrest proportions. These findings highlight areas needing targeted prevention and intervention strategies.
Area of Science:
- Criminology
- Public Health
- Spatial Analysis
Background:
- Rape is a significant crime and public health issue.
- No prior national-scale spatial mapping of rape has been conducted.
- This study addresses spatial distribution, clustering, and arrest rates of reported rape cases.
Purpose of the Study:
- To determine if reported rape cases are randomly distributed or clustered geographically in the USA.
- To investigate if rape clusters persist after adjusting for population density, age, and poverty.
- To identify geographical areas with unusually low or high proportions of rape cases leading to arrest.
Main Methods:
- Utilized reported rape event data (2003-2012) and arrest data (2000-2012) for the contiguous USA.
- Employed SaTScan™ software and the spatial scan statistic for geographical surveillance.
- Analyzed spatial variations in rape rates and arrest proportions, adjusting for demographic and socioeconomic factors.
Main Results:
- Identified specific geographical areas with exceptionally high rates of reported rape.
- Confirmed the presence of rape clusters even after adjusting for age and poverty levels.
- Located geographical clusters with significantly low or high proportions of reported rapes resulting in arrests.
Conclusions:
- Geographical clusters of high reported rape rates were identified.
- These high-rate areas are critical targets for enhanced preventive counseling and criminal justice interventions.
- Findings support expanded implementation of rape prevention measures and a stronger role for the criminal justice system.
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