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A Practical Approach to Address Uncertainty in Stakeholder Deliberations.

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  • 1Decision Research, Eugene, OR, USA/Halfmoon Bay, BC, Canada.

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|January 18, 2017
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Summary
This summary is machine-generated.

This study addresses uncertainty in public policy decisions. It recommends using certainty equivalents to help stakeholders evaluate alternatives with multiple objectives.

Keywords:
Alternativesdeliberationspublic policystakeholdersuncertainty

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Area of Science:

  • Decision Analysis
  • Risk Assessment
  • Public Policy

Background:

  • Incorporating uncertainty into stakeholder deliberations for policy decisions is challenging.
  • A significant gap exists between common practices and prescriptive decision-aiding models for handling uncertainty.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To explore the difficulties in integrating uncertainty estimates into stakeholder discussions for multiple alternatives.
  • To propose a model for effectively incorporating uncertainty in public policy decision-making.

Main Methods:

  • Reviewed the treatment of uncertainty across four phases: expert elicitation, individual and coalition stakeholder engagement, committee deliberations, and decision-maker involvement.
  • Developed a model utilizing certainty equivalents.

Main Results:

  • Identified challenges in current stakeholder deliberation practices regarding uncertainty.
  • Proposed certainty equivalents as a robust and practical method for uncertainty integration.

Conclusions:

  • Certainty equivalents offer a theoretically sound and practical approach for diverse stakeholders.
  • This method aids in evaluating multiple-objective alternatives under uncertainty in public policy contexts.