Survival probabilities of end stage renal disease patients on renal replacement therapy in Iran

To bridge the gap in the current knowledge, the present study was conducted to obtain evidences relating to clinical outcomes of the end-stage renal disease (ESRD) population in Iran over the last two decades.

The records of 84 652 incident ESRD patients from 1995 up to and including 2014 in the national registry of ESRD patients were analyzed retrospectively. Data were collected from dialysis and transplant centres in Iran from 1995 to 2008 via paper forms and from 2009 to 2014 through web-based records.

Mean age (SD) in incident cases of ESRD (57.7% male) was 52.5 (16.6) years. The prevalence of ESRD patients grew on average 14.9% and 5.3% annually in the periods of 1995-2004 and 2005-2014, respectively. Adjusted mortality rate among dialysis patients in 1995, 2005, and 2014 was 145, 154, and 177/ 1000 patient-years, respectively. Median graft half-life (IQR) and median expected remaining life-years (IQR) for dialysis patients in the 2003 incident patient cohort were 4.4 (1.9-8.3) and 4.2 (1.8-8.2) years, respectively.

The overall slightly decreasing, and still comparable, survival trend in dialysis patients, despite the accessible and free dialysis treatment, may be the result of the counterbalance of different contributory factors, including increased age and the higher proportion of patients with co-morbidities resulting from diabetes and hypertension. The half-lives of renal allografts were generally shorter compared to thus far shared evidence, which may be due to tissue incompatibility. The decreasing trend, in this context, can be attributable to the increased number of transplantation from deceased donors with expanded criteria.