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Changes in field workability and drought risk from projected climate change drive spatially variable risks in
Bradley J Tomasek1, Martin M Williams2, Adam S Davis2
1Department of Crop Sciences, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Urbana, Illinois, United States of America.
Plos One
|February 24, 2017
Summary
Climate change impacts agricultural production through volatile weather. Projections show longer frost-free seasons but decreased spring fieldwork days and increased drought risk in Illinois.
Area of Science:
- Agricultural Science
- Climate Change Impact
- Environmental Science
Background:
- Increasingly volatile weather patterns pose significant risks to agricultural productivity.
- Climate change is expected to alter soil temperature and moisture, affecting the availability of days suitable for fieldwork.
Purpose of the Study:
- To project changes in Illinois' growing season length, spring fieldwork suitability, and summer drought risk.
- To analyze these changes under three distinct greenhouse gas emissions scenarios (B1, A1B, A2) at the crop district scale.
Main Methods:
- Utilized climate change projections under different emissions scenarios.
- Analyzed impacts on soil temperature, soil moisture, and thermal time units.
- Assessed changes in frost-free season length, fieldwork days (March-May), and summer drought metrics.
Main Results:
- Projected increases in thermal time units and a longer frost-free season across all scenarios.
- Observed an increase in late March and early April fieldwork suitability, but a decrease in overall April-May workable days for many regions.
- Indicated an increase in summer drought metrics for most projected scenarios.
Conclusions:
- Climate change presents complex challenges for agricultural mitigation and adaptation strategies in Illinois.
- The spatial and temporal variability of climate change impacts necessitates tailored approaches for agricultural resilience.
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