Distribution Shifts of Vaccinium Berry Wild Relatives in China Under Climate and Land-Use Changes

Predicting species distributions under future environmental change is essential for understanding biodiversity responses and informing conservation planning. Vaccinium, a genus that includes important germplasm resources for many commercial berry crops, comprises diverse berry wild relatives (BWRs) in China, yet research on their responses to environmental changes remains limited. Here, we used occurrences of eight Vaccinium BWRs in China and ensemble species distribution models to predict their distributions in the 2070s under climate and land-use changes (SSP126, SSP245, and SSP585) together with two dispersal scenarios (20 km/decade and full dispersal). We found stronger effects from climate-related variables than land-use variables on the distributions of the eight BWRs. The current potential distribution areas were largely consistent with known distributions, with generally high or moderate suitability. Most species would have their range size contracted, while two species were projected to have considerable range size increased. There was a trend of range shifts toward higher latitudes for most species. Based on projected persistent suitable areas, three northeastern distributed species would have their habitat limited in the Greater Khingan Mountains area, while five southern distributed species would harbor relative stability in their own specific areas. These findings enhance our understanding of how climate and land-use changes may reshape the distributions of Vaccinium BWRs in China and provide valuable insights for their long-term conservation and management.