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Competition between low and high pathogenicity avian influenza in a two-patch system.

Omar Saucedo¹, M Martcheva¹

¹Department of Mathematics, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL 32611, United States.

Mathematical Biosciences

|February 27, 2017

Summary

Highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) outbreaks are increasing. This study models how bird migration between live poultry markets affects the spread of HPAI versus low pathogenic avian influenza (LPAI).

Keywords:

Avian influenza HPAI LPAI Reproduction number

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Area of Science:

Epidemiology
Mathematical Biology
Veterinary Science

Background:

Avian influenza epidemiology has transformed, with rising outbreaks of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI).
Live poultry markets are significant hubs for avian influenza transmission.
Increased HPAI outbreaks lead to higher infection rates and control costs.

Purpose of the Study:

To model the competitive dynamics between low pathogenic avian influenza (LPAI) and HPAI strains.
To investigate the impact of migration between live poultry markets on disease spread.
To analyze the stability of disease equilibria and determine critical thresholds (R0).

Main Methods:

Development of a two-patch mathematical model representing live poultry markets.
Utilizing a system of differential equations to analyze disease dynamics.
Assessment of the existence and stability of LPAI and HPAI equilibria.

Main Results:

Migration generally increases the prevalence of HPAI in poultry populations.
Migration promotes the coexistence of LPAI and HPAI strains in Patch 2.
The region of coexistence in Patch 1 fluctuates with active inter-patch migration.

Conclusions:

Migration between live poultry markets significantly influences avian influenza strain competition.
HPAI prevalence is exacerbated by bidirectional migration.
Understanding migration dynamics is crucial for controlling avian influenza spread in live poultry markets.