Predicting seizures in untreated temporal lobe epilepsy using point-process nonlinear models of heartbeat dynamics

Symptoms of temporal lobe epilepsy (TLE) are frequently associated with autonomic dysregulation, whose underlying biological processes are thought to strongly contribute to sudden unexpected death in epilepsy (SUDEP). While abnormal cardiovascular patterns commonly occur during ictal events, putative patterns of autonomic cardiac effects during pre-ictal (PRE) periods (i.e. periods preceding seizures) are still unknown. In this study, we investigated TLE-related heart rate variability (HRV) through instantaneous, nonlinear estimates of cardiovascular oscillations during inter-ictal (INT) and PRE periods. ECG recordings from 12 patients with TLE were processed to extract standard HRV indices, as well as indices of instantaneous HRV complexity (dominant Lyapunov exponent and entropy) and higher-order statistics (bispectra) obtained through definition of inhomogeneous point-process nonlinear models, employing Volterra-Laguerre expansions of linear, quadratic, and cubic kernels. Experimental results demonstrate that the best INT vs. PRE classification performance (balanced accuracy: 73.91%) was achieved only when retaining the time-varying, nonlinear, and non-stationary structure of heartbeat dynamical features. The proposed approach opens novel important avenues in predicting ictal events using information gathered from cardiovascular signals exclusively.