Age 4 Predictors of Oppositional Defiant Disorder in Early Grammar School

Our ability to predict which children will exhibit oppositional defiant disorder (ODD) at the time of entry into grammar school at age 6 lags behind our understanding of the risk factors for ODD. This study examined how well a set of multidomain risk factors for ODD assessed in 4-year-old children predicted age 6 ODD diagnostic status. Participants were a diverse sample of 796 4-year-old children (391 boys).The sample was 54% White, non-Hispanic; 16.8% African American, 20.4% Hispanic; 2.4% Asian; and 4.4% Other or mixed race. The classification accuracy of two models of multidomain risk factors, using either a measure of overall ODD symptoms or dimensions of ODD obtained at age 4, were compared to one another, to chance, and to a parsimonious model based solely on parent-reported ODD using Automated Classification Tree Analysis. Effect Strength for Sensitivity (ESS), a measure of classification accuracy, indicated a multidomain model including a general measure of ODD symptoms at age 4 yielded a large effect (56.29%), a 13.7% increase over the ESS for the parsimonious model (ESS = 42.9%). The ESS (51.23%) for a model including two ODD dimensions (behavior and negative affect) was smaller than that for the model including a measure of overall ODD symptoms. The Classification Tree Analysis approach showed a small but distinct advantage that would be useful in screening for which children would most likely meet criteria for age 6 ODD.