Climate and marriage in the Netherlands, 1871-1937

Area of Science:

• Historical demography
• Environmental history
• Climate change impacts

Background:

• Climate variability significantly influences demographic behaviors across diverse settings.
• Limited research exists on the interplay between historical demography and climate patterns.
• Understanding these relationships is crucial for contextualizing past societal responses to environmental shifts.

Purpose of the Study:

• To investigate the effects of climate variability on marriage patterns in a historical context.
• To analyze the relationship between environmental conditions and demographic behavior using longitudinal data.
• To test established theories, such as the Malthusian narrative, against historical evidence.

Main Methods:

• Utilized longitudinal individual-level demographic data from the Historical Sample of the Netherlands (HSN).
• Integrated climate and economic data spanning the period 1871-1937.
• Employed statistical analysis to examine correlations between environmental factors and marriage rates.

Main Results:

• Marriage rates showed a positive correlation with adverse environmental conditions.
• Specifically, colder temperatures, riverine flooding, and elevated rye prices were associated with increased marriage incidence.
• These findings diverge from expectations based on Malthusian population dynamics.

Conclusions:

• Historical environmental constraints on marriage behavior may not align with Malthusian predictions.
• Climate variability appears to have had complex, non-linear effects on demographic decisions in the past.
• Further research is needed to fully understand the nuanced interactions between climate and historical demography.