Affective forecasting bias in preschool children

Area of Science:

• Developmental psychology
• Cognitive science
• Affective forecasting

Background:

• Adults tend to overestimate the intensity of their future emotional reactions.
• The developmental origins of this
• intensity bias
• in affective forecasting are not well understood.

Purpose of the Study:

• To investigate the presence of an intensity bias in preschool-aged children.
• To examine the developmental trajectory of affective forecasting accuracy.

Main Methods:

• Two studies were conducted with 4- and 5-year-old children.
• Participants predicted their emotional feelings (sadness, happiness) regarding hypothetical future events (winning/losing games).
• Predictions were compared with actual self-reported feelings after the events.

Main Results:

• Five-year-olds overestimated the intensity of sadness they would experience from losing games.
• Happiness predictions for winning games were generally accurate.
• The negative intensity bias was also observed in 4-year-olds.

Conclusions:

• Preschool children exhibit an intensity bias in affective forecasting, specifically overestimating negative emotional responses.
• This suggests that the tendency to mispredict emotional intensity develops early in childhood.