[Predictor Model of Acute Coronary Syndrome Outcomes]

Scores for assessment of risk of cardiovascular events in patients with acute coronary syndrome (ACS) became wide spread during last decade. Taking into consideration high level of ACS morbidity and mortality in Russia there is a need in creation of own national scores. Aim of this study was to investigate the value of risk factors of death and to create a multivariate model of survival of patients with ACS during hospitalization.

The non-randomized retrospective continuous study of 1000 case histories (medical records) of patients with ACS with assessment of value of risk factors was performed, and the multifactor model and computer program estimation of risk of death was created. While selecting risk factors emphasis was made on heart rhythm and presence of arrhythmia, and on anamnestic data.

Most significant factors were age, history of myocardial infarction, atrial fibrillation, and ventricular tachycardia. The created regression model of estimation of risk of death by 51.4% was explained by these factors. Using this model, we developed a computer program "Kardiorisk" which predicts risk of death with 100% sensitivity and 80% specificity.