Assembly rules for Greater Antillean Anolis lizards : Competition and random models compared

Area of Science:

• Ecology
• Biogeography
• Computational Biology

Background:

• Anolis lizards exhibit distinct ecomorphs, influencing their distribution.
• Competition is a key factor shaping species interactions and distributions.
• Predictive modeling is crucial for understanding ecological patterns.

Purpose of the Study:

• To construct and compare ecological models predicting Anolis lizard species distribution.
• To assess the role of interspecific competition in structuring lizard communities.
• To test the transferability of models between islands (Puerto Rico to Jamaica).

Main Methods:

• Development of a series of predictive models, from null models to complex competition models.
• Utilizing species-site matrices and ecological variables (niche overlap, body size).
• Employing the kappa statistic to evaluate model accuracy and agreement.

Main Results:

• Constrained null models showed agreement with observed data.
• Simple competition models had limited predictive power.
• A complex competition model showed significant agreement, especially when accounting for the invasive Anolis sagrei.

Conclusions:

• Competition models can predict Anolis lizard distributions, but require careful parameterization.
• The invasive Anolis sagrei's distribution significantly impacts model accuracy.
• The study predicts successful persistence of Anolis sagrei in experimental transplants.