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Worldwide demography of centenarians
Jean-Marie Robine1, Sarah Cubaynes1
1University of Montpellier, Montpellier F-34095, France; INSERM, U1198, Montpellier F-34095, France; EPHE, Paris F-75014, France; PSL Research University, Paris F-75005, France.
Mechanisms of Ageing and Development
|March 20, 2017
Summary
The number of centenarians is rising globally. However, a recent study indicates that the decline in mortality at age 100 may be pausing, potentially limiting future growth in this population.
Area of Science:
- Demography
- Gerontology
- Public Health
Background:
- Global centenarian populations are projected to increase significantly this century.
- Understanding the dynamics of longevity and centenarian growth is crucial for public health planning.
Purpose of the Study:
- To analyze the emergence and growth of centenarian populations in Denmark, France, Sweden, Switzerland, and Japan.
- To investigate mortality trends among centenarians within the context of the adult longevity revolution.
Main Methods:
- Comparative analysis of demographic data from five countries with high-quality centenarian records.
- Examination of mortality rates at age 100 for centenarians.
Main Results:
- The decrease in mortality at age 100 for females, who are leading longevity trends, appears to have halted in four of the five studied countries, including Japan.
- This interruption suggests a potential "compression of mortality" scenario.
Conclusions:
- While the trend of decreasing centenarian mortality may be interrupted, demographic transitions are not always linear.
- Future longevity trends may resume, potentially leading to continued growth in the centenarian population.
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