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Skill Assessment for Coupled Biological/Physical Models of Marine Systems.
Craig A Stow1, Jason Jolliff2, Dennis J McGillicuddy3
1NOAA, Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory, 2205 Commonwealth Blvd., Ann Arbor, MI USA, 734-741-2055 (fax).
Journal of Marine Systems : Journal of the European Association of Marine Sciences and Techniques
|April 4, 2017
Summary
Rigorous assessment of marine model skill is crucial for reliable predictions. Employing multiple metrics provides a comprehensive understanding of model capabilities and limitations.
Area of Science:
- Marine ecosystem modeling
- Computational oceanography
- Environmental prediction systems
Background:
- Coupled biological/physical marine models are increasingly vital for high-stakes predictions.
- Ensuring the reliability of these models necessitates rigorous skill assessment.
Purpose of the Study:
- To review metrics and approaches for evaluating marine model skill.
- To emphasize the importance of context-specific skill definitions.
- To advocate for the use of multiple assessment metrics.
Main Methods:
- Review of existing metrics for evaluating model performance.
- Discussion of the context-dependent nature of skill assessment.
- Recommendation for a multi-metric approach to skill appraisal.
Main Results:
- No single metric fully captures marine model skill.
- A combination of metrics offers a more thorough evaluation.
- Skill assessment is application-specific.
Conclusions:
- Routine, rigorous skill assessment improves marine model forecasting.
- Understanding model limitations is key to responsible prediction.
- Standardized skill assessment benefits the wider modeling community.