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Related Experiment Videos

A framework for modelling range shifts and migrations: asking when, whither, whether and will it return.

Eliezer Gurarie1, Francesca Cagnacci2,3, Wibke Peters2,4

  • 1Department of Biology, University of Maryland, College Park, MD, 20742, USA.

The Journal of Animal Ecology
|April 4, 2017
PubMed
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A new statistical method, mechanistic range shift analysis (MRSA), quantifies animal movement patterns like seasonal migration. It revealed roe deer exhibit behavioral plasticity, deciding whether to migrate based on environmental cues rather than where to migrate.

Area of Science:

  • Ecology and Evolutionary Biology
  • Quantitative Biology
  • Animal Behavior

Background:

  • Animals exhibit diverse movements beyond home ranging, including seasonal migrations, dispersal, and responses to environmental changes.
  • Existing tools for identifying range shifts and migrations lack a statistical framework for quantitative comparisons.
  • Understanding these large-scale movements is crucial for conservation and ecological studies.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To introduce the mechanistic range shift analysis (MRSA), a novel statistical framework for analyzing animal movement data.
  • To develop quantitative parameters for describing range shifts, including initiation times, transition durations, and range centroids.
  • To provide statistical tests for hypotheses related to range shifts, stopovers, and site fidelity.

Main Methods:

Keywords:
Capreolus capreolusOU processOUF processcontinuous time movement modelsmigratorinesspartial migrationroe deer

Related Experiment Videos

  • Developed the mechanistic range shift analysis (MRSA) to model animal movement, accounting for autocorrelation and irregular sampling.
  • Estimated key range shift parameters: initiation times, transition durations, centroids, and areas.
  • Introduced a range shift index for quantifying movement extent and utilized likelihood-based estimation for hypothesis testing.
  • Created an R package (marcher) to implement the MRSA methodology.

Main Results:

  • Applied MRSA to GPS-tracked roe deer in the Italian Alps, revealing significant inter-annual variability in seasonal migration.
  • Quantified individual and population-level movement behaviors, identifying seasonal range shifts even in ambiguous cases.
  • Observed that many roe deer did not migrate during a mild winter (2006-2007) but exhibited high site fidelity in other years.
  • Found that the decision to migrate, rather than the destination, reflects behavioral plasticity and response to environmental cues.

Conclusions:

  • MRSA provides a robust statistical framework for analyzing complex animal movement patterns, improving upon existing heuristic tools.
  • Roe deer demonstrate significant behavioral plasticity in migration decisions, tactically responding to immediate environmental conditions.
  • Site fidelity remains high even after skipping a migration, suggesting a strong underlying attachment to established ranges.
  • A trade-off exists between the probability of migrating and the size of an animal's home range.