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Quantifying long-term plant community dynamics with movement models: implications for ecological resilience
Sumanta Bagchi1, Navinder J Singh2, David D Briske3
1Centre for Ecological Sciences, Indian Institute of Science, Bangalore, 560012, India.
Summary
We developed a new quantitative method to analyze ecological resilience by classifying plant community dynamics into four trajectories: stability, abrupt nonlinear change, reversible change, and gradual linear drift. This approach accurately categorizes long-term vegetation changes, aiding ecosystem management.
Area of Science:
- Ecology
- Ecological Dynamics
- Resilience Science
Background:
- Understanding ecosystem organization and function relies on quantifying community dynamics.
- Ecological resilience concepts are crucial for ecosystem management, but require robust quantitative methods to distinguish dynamic patterns.
Purpose of the Study:
- To develop and validate a quantitative method for classifying plant community dynamics using principles from movement ecology.
- To systematically distinguish among different types of ecological resilience based on community change trajectories.
Main Methods:
- Applied linear and nonlinear statistical models to analyze temporal changes in species composition from long-term vegetation records.
- Classified community change into four trajectory types: stability, abrupt nonlinear change, transient reversible change, and gradual linear drift.
- Validated the method's accuracy and robustness through simulations and analysis of diverse North American grassland and primary succession datasets.
Main Results:
- Simulations demonstrated high classification accuracy (94-100%) for distinguishing trajectory types.
- Analysis of 14,647 observations from 775 plots revealed that stability was most common in perennial grasslands (44%), while abrupt nonlinear shifts were prevalent in annual grasslands and primary succession.
- Reversible dynamics were rare and typically required 2-3 decades to manifest.
Conclusions:
- The developed method provides a quantitative framework for analyzing and comparing ecological resilience across different ecosystems.
- Classifying community dynamics using movement ecology principles offers valuable insights for ecosystem management and understanding ecological responses to change.