Advanced myopia, prevalence and incidence analysis

Area of Science:

• Ophthalmology
• Public Health
• Biostatistics

Background:

• High-percentage, high-incidence medical conditions often exhibit a characteristic age of onset and progression pattern.
• Understanding these patterns is crucial for conditions like myopia, which affect a significant portion of the population.

Purpose of the Study:

• To investigate the prevalence and incidence functions of myopia and high myopia as a function of age.
• To develop continuous prediction models for myopia prevalence and incidence over time.

Main Methods:

• A retrospective study analyzing data from nine reports, encompassing 444,600 subjects.
• Utilized fundamental prevalence and incidence data to establish predictive models.
• No interventions were applied beyond standard eye examinations and refractive correction.

Main Results:

• Developed continuous prediction models for myopia prevalence and incidence rates (%/year).
• Identified key parameters including age of onset (years), system plateau level, and system time constant (years).
• These models are applicable to progressive myopia and high myopia (R < -6 D) over extended periods.

Conclusions:

• The ratio of high myopes (R < -6.0 D) to common myopes is expected to increase substantially, from 15% upon college entry to over 45% after graduate studies.
• This increasing prevalence of high myopia is particularly relevant for individuals pursuing demanding academic programs like M.D. and Ph.D. degrees.