Finding pathways to national-scale land-sector sustainability

Area of Science:

• Environmental science
• Sustainability science
• Land systems science

Background:

• The United Nations' 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) provide a global framework for sustainability.
• National-scale implementation requires tailored, science-driven targets and strong governance.
• Assessing feasibility of SDG target achievement is crucial for national sustainability efforts.

Purpose of the Study:

• To assess the feasibility of achieving multiple SDG targets within the Australian land sector.
• To explore the impact of various future pathways on target achievement.
• To identify key drivers and trade-offs in national SDG implementation.

Main Methods:

• Scaled SDG targets to different ambition levels and timeframes.
• Utilized the Land-Use Trade-Offs (LUTO) integrated land systems model.
• Simulated 648 plausible future environmental, socio-economic, technological, and policy pathways.

Main Results:

• SDG target achievement is highly sensitive to emissions abatement, domestic land-use policy, and adoption of land-use change.
• Lower ambition targets showed higher achievement rates but poorer overall sustainability outcomes.
• Simultaneous achievement of multiple targets is challenging due to inherent trade-offs in land systems.

Conclusions:

• Effective national SDG implementation requires a long-term view, flexibility, and acknowledgment of complex trade-offs.
• The land sector must prioritize food production, biodiversity, and land degradation, while leveraging co-benefits for other targets.
• Integrated, multi-sectoral analyses are essential for setting effective national sustainability targets and interventions.