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[Ross-Macdonald: A model for the dengue dynamic in Cali, Colombia]
Lilian S Sepúlveda-Salcedo1, Olga Vasilieva2, Héctor J Martínez-Romero2
1Universidad Autónoma de Occidente, Cali, Colombia, lssepulveda@uao.edu.co.
Revista De Salud Publica (Bogota, Colombia)
|April 29, 2017
Summary
This study analyzes the Ross-Macdonald model to understand dengue transmission dynamics in Cali, Colombia. Findings help predict and manage potential dengue epidemic outbreaks in urban areas.
Area of Science:
- * Mathematical modeling of infectious diseases.
- * Epidemiology and public health surveillance.
- * Vector-borne disease dynamics.
Context:
- * Dengue is a mosquito-borne infection prevalent in tropical and subtropical regions.
- * Increasing dengue transmission, particularly in urban settings, poses a significant public health challenge.
- * Cali, Colombia, reported the highest number of dengue cases nationally, with 5,134 cases and 171 severe cases by April 2013.
Purpose:
- * To describe and qualitatively analyze the Ross-Macdonald model for dengue transmission.
- * To perform sensitivity analysis on the model's parameters.
- * To simulate and analyze potential dengue epidemic outbreak scenarios in Cali.
Summary:
- * The Ross-Macdonald model was applied to dengue cases in Cali, Colombia.
- * Model sensitivity to parameter changes was assessed.
- * Simulations explored epidemic outbreak possibilities based on 2010 data.
Impact:
- * Provides insights into dengue transmission patterns in Cali.
- * Informs public health strategies for dengue prevention and control.
- * Enhances understanding of mathematical modeling for epidemic preparedness.
