Evaluation of the Cariogram for root caries prediction

Area of Science:

• Gerodontology
• Dental Public Health
• Cariology

Background:

• Root caries is a significant oral health concern in older adults.
• Accurate caries risk assessment is crucial for targeted preventive interventions.

Purpose of the Study:

• To evaluate the complete and reduced Cariogram models for predicting root caries risk.
• To compare Cariogram's risk assessment with observed root caries increment over two years in older adults.

Main Methods:

• Prospective study of 334 dentate older adults over 24 months.
• Collected data included medical history, fluoride exposure, diet, and saliva analysis.
• Caries risk assessed using the Cariogram, with complete and reduced models evaluated via ROC analysis.

Main Results:

• 55.6% of high-risk individuals developed new caries versus 3.8% in the low-risk group.
• The complete Cariogram model showed fair predictive performance (AUC 0.77).
• Omitting salivary variables did not significantly impact the Cariogram's predictive ability.

Conclusions:

• The Cariogram is clinically useful for identifying older adults at high risk of root caries.
• Reliable caries risk assessment tools enhance the cost-effectiveness of preventive dental measures.