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Area of Science:

  • Marine Ecology
  • Climate Change Biology
  • Biogeography

Background:

  • Species distributions are shifting globally due to climate change.
  • Observed range shifts are highly variable and not solely explained by climate.
  • Abiotic and biotic factors interact with climate change to influence species' range dynamics.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To investigate the role of directional forces, such as ocean currents, in modifying climate-driven species range shifts.
  • To develop a metric quantifying the agreement between ocean currents and thermal gradients.
  • To improve predictions of marine species' responses to climate change.

Main Methods:

  • Analysis of a global meta-dataset of observed marine species range shifts.
  • Development and application of a metric measuring directional agreement between ocean currents and thermal gradients.
  • Assessment of how current directionality influences range shift facilitation or hindrance.

Main Results:

  • Incorporating directional agreement between ocean currents and climate significantly increases explained variance in species range shifts.
  • Ocean currents can both facilitate and impede range shifts depending on their alignment with temperature gradients.
  • The impact of currents on range shifts is modulated by the location of the shift (trailing, leading, centroid) and species' taxonomic identity.

Conclusions:

  • Directional forces like ocean currents are critical, interacting factors in climate-driven biogeographical shifts.
  • A simple metric can capture the influence of current-climate directional agreement on species distribution changes.
  • Understanding these interactions is essential for accurate climate change impact predictions for marine ecosystems.