[Capture-mark-recapture analysis on the under-registration rate of mortality surveillance program in Jinan]

Objective: To evaluate the under-registration rate related to mortality surveillance program in Jinan city, from 2013 to 2014, using the capture-mark-recapture method. Methods: Under the stratified cluster random sampling method, samples were stratified, according to urban and rural areas. Two districts and three counties were chosen, with three towns/streets in each county/district and eight villages/communities in each township/street, randomly selected. With the participation of departments as civil affairs, public security, maternal/child institutions and community committees as well as individuals as village doctors and community leaders, a list of deaths from January 1, 2013 to December 31, 2014 was collected and compared to the National Mortality Surveillance System on the rates related to under-registration. Results: A total of 2 903 records on deaths were collected from 2013 to 2014,while 3 113 deaths were reported in the surveillance system of the same period. 3 772 (95% CI:3 741-3 802) deaths were estimated by the capture-mark-recapture method. The two-year total under-registration rate was 17.46%. The under-registration rates in 2013 and 2014 appeared as 19.29% and 15.57% (χ(2)=8.92, P<0.01), respectively, with the rates in urban and rural areas as 20.91% and 11.93% (χ(2)=47.35, P<0.01). The rates on male and female were 17.87% and 16.98% (χ(2)=0.48, P>0.05). The rates of <5 years old group and ≥5 years old group were 21.57% and 17.45% (χ(2)=0.03, P>0.05) respectively. Conclusions: Under-registration in the mortality surveillance was noticed in Jinan. The capture-mark-recapture method seemed useful for evaluating the under-registration rate in the mortality surveillance program. It is suggested that the survey on under-registration rate should be carried out on the regular base. The under-registration rate seemed useful in adjusting the mortality rate.