Quantifying thermal extremes and biological variation to predict evolutionary responses to changing climate

Area of Science:

• Thermal biology
• Evolutionary biology
• Climate change science

Background:

• Thermal performance curves and tolerances are key to understanding fitness changes in response to climate change.
• Extending these concepts to extreme climatic events presents unique opportunities and challenges.

Purpose of the Study:

• To evaluate the consequences of extreme climatic events using thermal biology.
• To explore the application of extreme value theory in understanding thermal extremes.
• To review the predictive power of performance curves and tolerances for evolutionary responses.

Main Methods:

• Utilizing statistical tools from extreme value theory to analyze thermal extreme distributions.
• Reviewing existing literature on performance curves and tolerances in climate change research.
• Analyzing case studies on the impact of extreme events on evolutionary responses.

Main Results:

• Thermal extreme distributions vary with latitude, time scale, and climate change.
• Performance curves and tolerances are influenced by thermal history and time scale, complicating predictions.
• Infrequent extreme events can significantly impact the evolution of performance curves and heat tolerance.

Conclusions:

• A greater focus on the tails of environmental extreme distributions and performance curves is necessary.
• Understanding the combined effects of thermal extremes on reproduction and survival is crucial for fitness assessment.
• This research highlights the need for integrating extreme event analysis into evolutionary biology and climate change studies.