Empirical evidence for resource-rational anchoring and adjustment
Falk Lieder1,2, Thomas L Griffiths3,4, Quentin J M Huys5,6
1Helen Wills Neuroscience Institute, University of California, Berkeley, USA. falk.lieder@berkeley.edu.
Psychonomic Bulletin & Review
|May 10, 2017
Summary
Anchoring bias in numerical estimation may not be irrational. People rationally adjust their estimates based on time and error costs, optimizing speed and accuracy.
Area of Science:
- Cognitive Psychology
- Behavioral Economics
- Decision Science
Background:
- Numerical estimation is prone to anchoring bias, where initial guesses heavily influence final estimates.
- Traditional views interpret anchoring bias as a sign of human irrationality.
- Recent theories propose anchoring bias stems from rational resource allocation.
Purpose of the Study:
- To investigate whether anchoring bias reflects a rational speed-accuracy tradeoff.
- To test if adjustment in numerical estimates varies with the costs of time and error.
Main Methods:
- Developed a novel numerical estimation paradigm.
- Independently manipulated time cost and error cost.
- Allowed participants to control their adjustment effort.
Main Results:
- Estimate adjustment decreased as time cost increased.
- Estimate adjustment increased as error cost increased.
- These effects held for both self-generated and provided anchors.
Conclusions:
- Anchoring bias may represent a rational adaptation to finite cognitive resources.
- People strategically balance speed and accuracy in numerical estimation.
- The findings challenge the notion of anchoring bias as solely irrational.
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