Menopausal hormone therapy and national time trends in mortality: cautions regarding causal inference

Menopause, a natural biological process marking the end of a woman's fertility, typically occurs between the fifth and sixth decade of life. This phase is characterized by the exhaustion of the ovarian follicle pool, leading to less responsive ovaries despite the high levels of Follicle Stimulating Hormone (FSH) and Luteinizing Hormone (LH). The consequential decrease in estrogen production results in symptoms like hot flashes, heavy sweating, headaches, hair loss, muscle pains, vaginal...

The ovarian cycle regulates endometrial changes throughout a single menstrual cycle via the coordinated action of gonadotrophin-releasing hormone (GnRH) and gonadotrophins.
At puberty, GnRH begins a pulsatile release pattern, which triggers the anterior pituitary gland to secrete follicle-stimulating hormone (FSH) and luteinizing hormone (LH). The frequency and amplitude of GnRH pulses vary across the menstrual cycle, with faster pulses favoring LH release and slower pulses favoring FSH...

Aging and its effect on bone remodeling is the most common cause of bone disorders. In young and healthy people, bone deposition and resorption happen at an equal rate to maintain optimal bone health.
Bone deposition is also affected by the levels of sex hormones like estrogen and testosterone that promote osteoblast activity and bone matrix synthesis. When the level of these hormones decreases due to aging, it causes a reduction in bone deposition. As a result, bone resorption by osteoclasts...

Epidemiological study designs are fundamental tools for investigating the distribution, determinants, and control of health conditions in populations. They help researchers understand the relationships between exposures and outcomes, and they broadly fall into two categories: "observational" and "experimental" studies.
Observational studies are those where the researcher does not intervene but rather observes natural variations. They include cross-sectional, cohort, and...

The hazard ratio (HR) is a widely used measure in clinical trials to compare the risk of events, such as death or disease recurrence, between two groups over time. It reflects the ratio of hazard rates—the instantaneous risk of the event occurring—between a treatment group and a control group. This measure provides valuable insights into the relative effectiveness of a treatment by assessing how the risk of an event differs between the two groups.
For example, in a clinical trial...

Regression toward the mean (“RTM”) is a phenomenon in which extremely high or low values—for example, and individual’s blood pressure at a particular moment—appear closer to a group’s average upon remeasuring. Although this statistical peculiarity is the result of random error and chance, it has been problematic across various medical, scientific, financial and psychological applications. In particular, RTM, if not taken into account, can interfere when...