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Updated: Mar 1, 2026

Predicting the Effectiveness of Population Replacement Strategy Using Mathematical Modeling
Published on: July 4, 2007
Designing a Community-Based Population Health Model
Christopher J Durovich1, Peter W Roberts2
11 Office of the CEO, Children's Health System of Texas , Dallas, Texas.
Abstract:
The pace of change from volume-based to value-based payment in health care varies dramatically among markets. Regardless of the ultimate disposition of the Affordable Care Act, employers and public-private payers will continue to increase pressure on health care providers to assume financial risk for populations in the form of shared savings, bundled payments, downside risk, or even capitation. This article outlines a suggested road map and practical considerations for health systems that are building or planning to build population health capabilities to meet the needs of their local markets. The authors review the traditional core capabilities needed to address the medical determinants of health for a population. They also share an innovative approach to community service integration to address the social determinants of health and the engagement of families to improve their own health and well-being. The foundational approach is to connect insurance products, the health care delivery system, and community service agencies around the family's well-being goals using human-centered design strategy.
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