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Temporal dynamics of online petitions
Lucas Böttcher1, Olivia Woolley-Meza2, Dirk Brockmann3,4
1ETH Zurich, Wolfgang-Pauli-Strasse 27, CH-8093 Zurich, Switzerland.
Plos One
|May 26, 2017
Summary
Analyzing online petition signing, researchers found popular petitions show distinct temporal patterns. Understanding these dynamics, including burstiness and time ordering, is key to predicting petition success.
Area of Science:
- Social Sciences
- Computational Social Science
- Network Science
Background:
- Online petitions are a significant tool for political engagement and direct action.
- The factors influencing the success of online petitions are not fully understood.
- Analyzing signing behavior can reveal patterns related to petition popularity.
Purpose of the Study:
- To investigate the temporal dynamics of online petition signing.
- To identify differences in signing behavior between popular and unpopular petitions.
- To understand the role of time ordering and burstiness in petition success.
Main Methods:
- Analysis of temporal characteristics of online petition signing data.
- Examination of inter-event time distributions.
- Application of statistical measures to assess burstiness and time ordering.
Main Results:
- Online petition signing is non-Poissonian and non-homogeneous, exhibiting high memory.
- Popular petitions show greater variance in inter-event times, indicating burstiness.
- However, large-volume petitions are less bursty when time ordering is considered.
Conclusions:
- Temporal characteristics, particularly time ordering, are crucial for understanding online petition dynamics.
- The findings suggest external influences or contagion effects may play a role in petition signing.
- This research provides insights into predicting the success of online political actions.
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