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Promises and lies: can observers detect deception in written messages
1Economics Department, Business School, University of Exeter, Exeter, UK.
Summary
Observers can distinguish between promises and empty talk in written messages, but struggle to predict if specific promises will be kept. Trust in messages depends on length and type, not just content.
Area of Science:
- Behavioral Economics
- Social Psychology
- Game Theory
Background:
- Trust and trustworthiness are crucial in social and economic interactions.
- Predicting adherence to commitments, especially in novel contexts, remains a challenge.
- Written communication introduces unique cues for assessing message sincerity.
Purpose of the Study:
- To experimentally investigate observers' ability to predict trustworthiness in a three-person trust game.
- To identify factors influencing observers' perceptions of message trustworthiness.
- To determine if observers can differentiate between genuine promises and 'empty talk'.
Main Methods:
- A laboratory experiment using a novel three-person trust game.
- Observers evaluated handwritten messages for trustworthiness and predicted sender behavior.
- Analysis of message features (mention of money, encompassing words, length) and their correlation with adherence and perception.
Main Results:
- Observers trusted longer messages and messages classified as 'promises' more than 'empty talk'.
- Promises mentioning money were significantly more likely to be broken.
- Observers performed slightly better than chance in predicting message adherence, driven by distinguishing promises from empty talk.
Conclusions:
- Observers can differentiate between promises and empty talk, and tend to trust promises more.
- While observers can categorize messages, they cannot reliably predict adherence within message categories (promises or empty talk).
- The mention of money in promises paradoxically increases the likelihood of them being broken.
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