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Formation Mechanism for 2015/16 Super El Niño
Lin Chen1,2, Tim Li3,4, Bin Wang1,2
1Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster, Ministry of Education (KLME)/Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environmental Change (ILCEC)/Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters (CIC-FEMD), Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, 210044, China.
The 2015 super El Niño (EN) event developed differently from past super ENs due to strong westerly wind bursts. These bursts reignited Pacific warming, leading to a powerful 2015 super El Niño event.
Area of Science:
- Climate Science
- Oceanography
- Atmospheric Science
Background:
- Extreme El Niño (EN) events, or super ENs, significantly impact global climate.
- A predicted super EN in 2014 failed to materialize, leaving scientists seeking explanations.
- A subsequent super EN emerged in 2015 from unexpected warming remnants.
Purpose of the Study:
- To understand the unique onset mechanism of the 2015 super EN.
- To identify differences between the 2015 super EN and previous super EN events.
- To improve future EN prediction in a changing climate.
Main Methods:
- Observational analyses of climate data.
- Climate modeling studies.
- Analysis of sea surface temperature anomalies and westerly wind burst events.
Main Results:
- The 2015 super EN was characterized by exceptionally strong and consecutive westerly wind burst events.
- These wind bursts reversed unfavorable thermocline conditions in the western Pacific.
- Rapid surface warming in the eastern Pacific occurred, amplified by atmosphere-ocean feedbacks.
Conclusions:
- The 2015 super EN's onset mechanism differed from past events due to unique westerly wind burst activity.
- Understanding these differences is key to enhancing El Niño prediction models.
- The findings contribute to better forecasting of extreme climate events.
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