Validation of Serial Alberta Stroke Program Early CT Score as an Outcome Predictor in Thrombolyzed Stroke Patients

The Alberta Stroke Program Early CT Score (ASPECTS) on baseline imaging is an established predictor of functional outcome in anterior circulation acute ischemic stroke (AIS). We studied ASPECTS before intravenous thrombolysis (IVT) and at 24 hours to assess its prognostic value.

Data for consecutive anterior circulation AIS patients treated with IVT from 2006 to 2013 were extracted from a prospectively managed registry at our tertiary center. Pre-thrombolysis and 24-hour ASPECTS were evaluated by 2 independent neuroradiologists. Outcome measures included symptomatic intracranial hemorrhage (SICH), modified Rankin Scale (mRS) at 90 days, and mortality. Unfavorable functional outcome was defined by mRS >1. Dramatic ASPECTS progression (DAP) was defined as deterioration in ASPECTS by 6 points or more.

Of 554 AIS patients thrombolyzed during the study period, 400 suffered from anterior circulation infarction. The median age was 65 years (interquartile range (IQR): 59-70) and the median National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale score was 18 points (IQR: 12-22). Compared with the pre-IVT ASPECTS (area under the curve [AUC] = .64, 95% confidence interval [CI]: .54-.65, P = .001), ASPECTS on the 24-hour CT scan (AUC = .78, 95% CI: .73-.82, P < .001), and change in ASPECTS (AUC = .69, 95% CI: .64-.74, P < .001) were better predictors of unfavorable functional outcome at 3 months. DAP, noted in 34 (14.4%) patients with good baseline ASPECTS (8-10 points), was significantly associated with unfavorable functional outcome (odds ratio [OR]: 9.91, 95% CI: 3.37-29.19, P ≤ .001), mortality (OR: 21.99, 95% CI: 7.98-60.58, P < .001), and SICH (OR: 8.57, 95% CI: 2.87-25.59, P < .001).

Compared with the pre-thrombolysis score, ASPECTS measured at 24 hours as well as serial change in ASPECTS is a better predictor of 3-month functional outcome.