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Interactions between inferential strategies and belief bias
Henry Markovits1, Janie Brisson2, Pier-Luc de Chantal2
1Department of Psychology, Université du Québec à Montréal, C.P. 8888, Succ A, Montréal, QC, Canada. Henrymarkovits@gmail.com.
Memory & Cognition
|June 14, 2017
Summary
People using statistical reasoning strategies are more influenced by conclusion beliefs than those using counterexample strategies. Both reasoning approaches, however, show awareness of belief-premise conflicts.
Area of Science:
- Cognitive Psychology
- Human Reasoning
- Decision Making
Background:
- The dual strategy model posits two deductive inference methods: statistical and counterexample-based.
- Previous research supports this model and explores strategy properties.
Purpose of the Study:
- To test if statistical reasoners are more susceptible to conclusion belief effects.
- To compare response times and feeling of rightness (FOR) between strategies.
Main Methods:
- Three studies used abstract problems to identify strategy use.
- Participants reasoned through syllogisms with believable and unbelievable conclusions.
- Responses, response times, and FOR were recorded.
Main Results:
- Statistical reasoners showed greater vulnerability to conclusion belief.
- Statistical reasoners inferred conclusions more quickly than counterexample reasoners.
- Both strategies exhibited similar patterns in response times and FOR, indicating awareness of belief-premise conflict.
Conclusions:
- Conclusion belief significantly impacts statistical reasoning more than counterexample reasoning.
- Statistical reasoning is faster but more susceptible to belief bias.
- Reasoners using both strategies demonstrate an awareness of the conflict between belief and logic.
Keywords:
Belief biasConditional reasoningDual process theoriesDual strategyMental modelsProbabilistic reasoningMore Related Videos
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