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How Many Deaths from Colorectal Cancer Can Be Prevented by 2030? A Scenario-Based Quantification of Risk Factor
Katrine Damgaard Skyrud1, Tor Åge Myklebust2, Freddie Bray3
1Department of Registration, Cancer Registry of Norway, Institute of Population-Based Cancer Research, Majorstuen, Oslo, Norway. Katrine.Damgaard.Skyrud@kreftregisteret.no.
Implementing risk factor modification, screening, and improved treatment could significantly reduce colorectal cancer mortality in Norway by 2030. These strategies combined offer a substantial potential for preventing deaths and improving public health outcomes.
Area of Science:
- Public Health
- Cancer Epidemiology
- Preventive Medicine
Background:
- Colorectal cancer mortality is a significant public health concern.
- Effective strategies for reduction include risk factor modification, screening, and improved treatment.
- This study quantifies the potential impact of these interventions in Norway.
Observation:
- Risk factor modification (adherence to lifestyle recommendations) could decrease mortality by 11% by 2030.
- Screening via flexible sigmoidoscopy with 50% attendance could reduce mortality by 7%.
- Improved treatment, continuing current survival trends, could reduce mortality by 12%.
Findings:
- Risk factor modification is projected to prevent 227 deaths by 2030.
- Screening is estimated to prevent 149 deaths by 2030.
- Improved treatment is expected to prevent 268 deaths by 2030.
Implications:
- Combined strategies could reduce colorectal cancer mortality by 27% (604 deaths) by 2030.
- Improved treatment and risk factor modification show the largest potential for mortality reduction.
- These findings provide valuable data for public health policy and decision-making in Norway.
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