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First evidence for "The backup plan paradox".

Christopher M Napolitano1, Alexandra M Freund1

  • 1Department of Psychology, University of Zurich.

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Summary
This summary is machine-generated.

Investing in a backup plan may paradoxically undermine goal achievement by increasing reliance on it, even when resources are plentiful. This backup plan paradox suggests backup plans can introduce costs that jeopardize performance.

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Area of Science:

  • Psychology
  • Behavioral Economics
  • Decision Making

Background:

  • Backup plans are often developed to mitigate risks associated with Plan A's potential insufficiency.
  • However, the act of investing in and preparing a backup plan may inadvertently create conditions that lead to its use.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To investigate the "backup plan paradox," hypothesizing that investing in a backup plan may facilitate the very insufficiency it was designed to address.
  • To examine the impact of investing in backup plans on goal performance across various contexts.

Main Methods:

  • Five studies were conducted, employing correlational and experimental designs.
  • Methods included self-report measures of investment in backup plans, simulated negotiation tasks, and a lab-based motor task.
  • Participants (total N=971) invested in or perceived the instrumentality of backup plans.

Main Results:

  • Investing in backup plans increased their likelihood of use, but not necessarily their utility.
  • Perceiving backup plans as highly instrumental decreased goal performance, mediated by increased "means replacing" (switching from Plan A to the backup).
  • This undermining effect occurred regardless of whether goal-relevant resources were limited or plentiful.

Conclusions:

  • Backup plans can introduce costs that may jeopardize goal performance, supporting the backup plan paradox.
  • Simply having a backup plan is not detrimental; rather, the perceived instrumentality and investment in it can lead to negative outcomes.
  • Future research should explore strategies to mitigate the paradoxical effects of backup planning.