Related Experiment Video
Updated: Aug 2, 2026

Watershed Planning within a Quantitative Scenario Analysis Framework
Published on: July 24, 2016
COPEWELL: A Conceptual Framework and System Dynamics Model for Predicting Community Functioning and Resilience After
Jonathan M Links1, Brian S Schwartz1, Sen Lin2
11Department of Environmental Health and Engineering,Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health,Baltimore,Maryland.
Objective:
Policy-makers and practitioners have a need to assess community resilience in disasters. Prior efforts conflated resilience with community functioning, combined resistance and recovery (the components of resilience), and relied on a static model for what is inherently a dynamic process. We sought to develop linked conceptual and computational models of community functioning and resilience after a disaster.
Methods:
We developed a system dynamics computational model that predicts community functioning after a disaster. The computational model outputted the time course of community functioning before, during, and after a disaster, which was used to calculate resistance, recovery, and resilience for all US counties.
Results:
The conceptual model explicitly separated resilience from community functioning and identified all key components for each, which were translated into a system dynamics computational model with connections and feedbacks. The components were represented by publicly available measures at the county level. Baseline community functioning, resistance, recovery, and resilience evidenced a range of values and geographic clustering, consistent with hypotheses based on the disaster literature.
Conclusions:
The work is transparent, motivates ongoing refinements, and identifies areas for improved measurements. After validation, such a model can be used to identify effective investments to enhance community resilience. (Disaster Med Public Health Preparedness. 2018;12:127-137).
Related Concept Videos
Ecological Disturbance
Models of Health Promotion and Illness Prevention II
The agent-host-environment model states that disease results...
Pharmacodynamic Models: Link Model and Systems Pharmacodynamic Model
Design Example: Analyzing Capacity Contours for Flood Risk Assessment
Applications of GIS: Disaster Management and Emergency Response
Community Based Intervention
Foundations of Community Mental Health Programs
Central to the success of community-based interventions is the...
