Determinants of Urban Expansion and Agricultural Land Conversion in 25 EU Countries

Agricultural land conversion is resulting from ongoing complex interaction between the physical environment, policy settings and socio-economic factors. Case studies of the determinants of agricultural land conversion potentially contribute to the analysis of the main causes of land-use change. This can assist authorities and policy makers in understanding the relative importance of a wide range of factors on urban expansion and associated agricultural land-use change. This paper explores the determinants of agricultural land conversion to urban uses in the studied 25 European Union countries between 2000 and 2006. European-level as well as region-specific land-use changes are studied. The research is using the spatial data adapted from European Corine Land Cover maps of 2000 and 2006 and utilised other European sources regarding socio-economic, natural, geological, climate, and policy-related data. The differences in urbanisation processes observed in different regions in Europe emphasise the regional variations of urban conversion process of agricultural land use. This study identifies a combination of socio-economic drivers, policy-related factors, nature and location-based factors as key influences on agricultural land conversion processes in Europe. Specifically we found that the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) subsidies were influential in curbing urbanisation and reducing agricultural land consumption.