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Understanding extreme sea levels for broad-scale coastal impact and adaptation analysis
T Wahl1, I D Haigh2, R J Nicholls3
1Department of Civil, Environmental and Construction Engineering and Sustainable Coastal Systems Cluster, University of Central Florida, 12800 Pegasus Drive, Suite 211, Orlando, Florida 32816-2450, USA.
Nature Communications
|July 8, 2017
Summary
Uncertainties in extreme sea levels (ESL) significantly increase flood risk for coastal communities. These present-day ESL uncertainties are larger than future sea level rise (SLR) projections, impacting adaptation planning.
Area of Science:
- Climate Science
- Oceanography
- Coastal Engineering
Background:
- Mean sea level rise (SLR) increases flood risk by intensifying extreme sea levels (ESL).
- Existing research focuses on SLR projections, neglecting uncertainties in contemporary ESL.
- Limited projections exist for future ESL events.
Purpose of the Study:
- To quantify, for the first time globally, the uncertainties in present-day extreme sea level (ESL) estimates.
- To compare ESL uncertainties with global sea level rise (SLR) projections.
- To highlight the importance of considering ESL uncertainties in impact assessments.
Main Methods:
- Global-scale analysis of present-day extreme sea level (ESL) data.
- Quantification of uncertainties associated with ESL estimates.
- Comparison of ESL uncertainty magnitudes with projected sea level rise (SLR) uncertainties.
Main Results:
- Present-day ESL uncertainties are substantial and have been overlooked in broad-scale assessments.
- ESL uncertainties exceed those of global SLR projections in many regions.
- ESL uncertainties are projected to be larger than SLR by the end of the century, even under Paris Agreement goals.
Conclusions:
- Understanding and combining uncertainties from both SLR projections and ESL estimates is crucial.
- Accurate assessment of potential impacts and adaptation needs requires addressing ESL uncertainties.
- Future coastal flood risk assessments must incorporate present-day ESL uncertainties.
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