Emergent programme theories of a national quality register - a longitudinal study in Swedish elderly care

This study aimed to explore programme theories of a national quality register. A programme theory is a bundle of assumptions underpinning how and why an improvement initiative functions. The purpose was to examine and establish programme theories of a national quality register widely used in Sweden: Senior alert. The paper reports on how programme theories among change recipients emerge in relation to the established programme theory of the initiator.

A qualitative approach and a longitudinal research design were used. To develop programme theories among change recipients, individual semistructured interviews were conducted. Three sets of interviews were conducted in the period of 2011 to 2013, totalling 22 interviews. In addition, 4 participant observations were made. To develop the initiator's programme theory, an iterative multistage collaboration process between the researchers and the initiator was used. A directed content analysis was used to analyse data.

The initiator and change recipients described similar programme logics, but differing programme theories. With time, change recipients' programme theories emerged. Their programme theories converged and became more like the programme theory of the initiator.

This study has demonstrated the importance of making both the initiator's and change recipients' programme theories explicit. To learn about conditions for improvement initiatives, comparisons between their programme theories are valuable. Differences in programme theories provide information on how initiators can customize support for their improvement initiatives. Similar programme logics can be underpinned by different programme theories, which can be deceptive. Programme theories emerge over time and need to be understood as dynamic phenomena.