Mercury concentration trend as a possible result of changes in cod population demography

Mercury (Hg) in Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) is one of many parameters that are monitored through OSPAR's Joint Assessment and Monitoring Programme. Time series for cod in the Inner Oslofjord (Norway) go back to 1984. Until 2014, annual median Hg-concentrations in cod from the Inner Oslofjord showed both significant upward long-term (whole time series) and short-term (recent 10 years) trends (when 2015 was included, the short-term trend was not significant). However, the median length of the cod sampled also showed upward trends. This may have been caused by low cod recruitment in the area since the start of the 2000s, as indicated by beach seine surveys. To investigate how length would impact the trend analysis, the Hg-concentrations in the cod were normalised to 50 cm. No significant short-term trend in Hg-concentrations could be detected for length-normalised concentrations. The results indicated that most of the upward trend in Hg-concentrations could be attributed to the sampling of larger fish. The reasons for the apparent change in the cod population demography are not conclusive, however, sampling bias must also be considered.