Age differences in optimism bias are mediated by reliance on intuition and religiosity

The relationships among age, optimism bias, religiosity, creationist beliefs, and reliance on intuition were examined in a sample of 211 high school students (M_age=16.54years). Optimism bias was defined as the difference between predictions for positive and negative live events (e.g., divorce) for the self and age peers. Results indicated that older adolescents displayed less optimism bias, were less religious, believed less in creationism, and relied on intuition less than younger adolescents. Furthermore, the association between age and optimism bias was mediated by religiosity and reliance on intuition but not by creationist beliefs. These findings are considered from a dual-process theoretic perspective that emphasizes age increases in metacognitive abilities and epistemological beliefs and age declines in impulsive judgments. Research directed toward examining alternative explanations of the association among religiosity, age, and optimism bias is recommended.