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Articles linked to this work by shared authors, journal, and citation graph.

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Introduction to "Advancing Dental Education in the 21<sup>st</sup> Century" Project.

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Advancing Dental Education in the 21<sup>st</sup> Century: Developing the Phase 2 Strategic Analysis and Recommendations.

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Advancing Dental Education in the 21st Century: Phase 2 Report on Strategic Analysis and Recommendations.

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How Many Dentists Are Needed in 2040: Executive Summary.

Howard L Bailit1

  • 1Dr. Bailit is Professor Emeritus, Department of Community Medicine, School of Medicine, University of Connecticut. bailit@uchc.edu.

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|August 3, 2017
PubMed
Summary
This summary is machine-generated.

Improved oral health and declining service utilization may lead to a dentist surplus by 2040. This projection, based on population health and practice changes, suggests a need for proactive policy decisions regarding dental school enrollment and workforce planning.

Keywords:
new technologiesoral healthsupply of dentistsutilization rates

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Area of Science:

  • Dental Public Health
  • Healthcare Workforce Planning
  • Health Services Research

Background:

  • The
  • Advancing Dental Education in the 21st Century
  • project analyzed factors influencing future dentist demand.
  • Key factors include population oral health, service utilization trends, technological advancements, and practice model shifts.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To estimate the number of dentists required in 2040.
  • To compare projected needs with current trends in dental education and practice.
  • To inform policy decisions regarding dental workforce supply.

Main Methods:

  • Analysis of five background articles examining factors impacting dentist demand.
  • Synthesis of data on oral health improvements, service utilization, technology, and practice structures.
  • Estimation of future dentist requirements based on identified trends.

Main Results:

  • Significant improvements in population oral health, particularly among higher-income groups.
  • A notable decline in per capita utilization of restorative and prosthetic dental services.
  • Increased patient capacity in large capitated group practices compared to solo practices (2,100 vs. 1,350 patients/dentist).

Conclusions:

  • Projected slower growth in demand for traditional dental care may result in a dentist surplus by 2040.
  • The study highlights a critical policy question: should dental schools proactively reduce graduate numbers, or are alternative solutions available?
  • Addressing potential workforce imbalances requires strategic planning to avoid market-driven downsizing or closures.