How Many Dentists Are Needed in 2040: Executive Summary

Five background articles in Section 2 of the "Advancing Dental Education in the 21^st Century" project examined some of the factors likely to impact the number of dentists needed in 2040: 1) the oral health of the population, 2) changes in the utilization of dental services, 3) new technologies, 4) the growth of large capitated dental group practices, and 5) the demand for dental care. With this information, a sixth background article estimated the number of dentists needed in 2040 compared to the number expected if current trends continue. This executive summary provides an overview of findings from these six articles. The data indicate major improvements in oral health, especially in upper income groups that account for 65% of practice revenues. At the same time, per capita utilization of restorative and prosthetic services has declined dramatically. No major new technologies are likely to impact the need for dentists by 2040. In a large capitated group practice, full-time general dentists treated an average of 2,100 patients per year; solo general dentists averaged 1,350. Based on the examined factors, growth in demand for traditional forms of care may slow substantially, raising the potential for a surplus of dentists in 2040. If these trends continue, the key national policy issue then would be: should schools reduce the number of graduates before market forces require them to downsize or close, or are other alternatives available?