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A MATHEMATICAL DECISION MODEL TO PREDICT THE OPTIMAL NUMBER OF BEDS IN LABOUR ROOM AND MATERNITY WARD OF A LARGE
J C Sanadhya1, D R Basannar2, Rajvir Bhalwar3
1MO HS, Military Hospital Jodhpur 342010.
Abstract:
The pattern of deliveries taking place at a Command Hospital were studied with a view to predict the optimal number of beds required in the labour room. The data was collected on the basis of authentic records maintained in the labour room and a mathematical decision model was built up. The number of deliveries per day and shift-wise were found to be close to corresponding values of variance. Further, the application of chi-square test confirmed that Poisson distribution could be applied for such forecasts. The study revealed that optimal number of beds required in the labour room should be a maximum of 8 in a day. Further analysis on an 8-hourly shift basis revealed that the maximum number of deliveries in any given shift would be 4, the probability of higher number of deliveries being very small (p<0.05). Thus catering to 4 deliveries per shift should be the optimum provision in such a large teaching hospital.
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