Time is brain: Balancing risk in the treatment of presumed cardioembolic stroke

To assess whether clinical criteria can differentiate between presumed embolic strokes and non-embolic strokes before the full etiologic workup.

Between January 1, 2014 to December 30, 2015, patients with a diagnosis of stroke or transient ischemic attack were first classified clinically (without access to a cardiac assessment) as: 1. presumed embolic stroke defined as a combination of definite cardioembolic stroke and likely to be embolic stroke (no evidence of large/small artery atherosclerosis); 2. non-embolic strokes; i.e. small/large artery diseases and stroke due to other causes. Stroke etiology was reassessed after investigations and concordances between the early diagnosis and final classifications were analyzed.

77 patients with early diagnosis of presumed embolic strokes and 45 cases with non-embolic stroke (selected randomly) were enrolled. We were able to differentiate between presumed embolic strokes and non-embolic strokes with a high level of accuracy (sensitivity 81.40%, 95% CI: 71.55%-88.98%; specificity 80.56%, 95% CI: 63.98%-91.81%). A moderate level of agreement between initial and final diagnosis of embolic/non-embolic strokes (kappa 0.58, SE 0.08, p≤0.01) was observed. The results of carotid imaging improved the specificity and positive likelihood ratio of correct differentiation.

Those at high risk of embolism can be diagnosed clinically even before the completion of tests. This is a practical approach to distinguish patients at risk and help balance early risks of recurrence with those of short-term anticoagulation.