Modelling landscape dynamics with LST in protected areas of Western Ghats, Karnataka

Forest ecosystems sustain biota on the earth as they are habitat to diverse biotic species, arrests soil erosion, play a crucial role in water cycle, sequester carbon, and helps in mitigating the impacts of global warming. Large scale land use land cover (LULC) change leading to deforestation is one of the drivers of global climate changes and alteration of biogeochemical cycles with significant consequences in ecosystem services and biodiversity. This has necessitated the investigation of LULC by mapping, monitoring and modelling spatio-temporal patterns and evaluating these in the context of human-environment interactions. The current work investigates LULC changes with temperature dynamics of select protected areas in Western Ghats. The land use analyses reveal changes in the forest cover across Kudremukh National Park (KNP), Rajiv Gandhi Tiger Reserve (RTR), Bandipur Tiger Reserve (BTR). KNP region has lost evergreen forest cover during 1973-2016 from 33.46 to 27.22%, while BTR lost deciduous cover from 61.69 to 47.3% due to mining, horticulture plantations, human habitations, etc. The LST increase has impacted regeneration of species with the induced water stress, etc. CA-Markov modelling was used for forecasting the likely land uses in 2026 and validation was done through Kappa indices. Results highlight decline of evergreen cover in KNP (9%) and deciduous cover in RTR (2%) followed by BTR (3%) with further expansion of plantations, which will impact biodiversity, hydrology and ecology. Insights of LULC dynamics help natural resource managers in evolving appropriate strategies to ensure conservation of threatened biota in Western Ghats.