Combining present suitability and future probability to identify forest rewilding opportunities in Europe

Forests cover over 40% of EU land and provide critical carbon and biodiversity services, yet the vast majority remain under active management. While rewilding assessments have identified ecologically promising areas across Europe, they rarely distinguish forest rewilding (i.e., halting management in existing forests, allowing forests to develop toward naturally regulated states) from afforestation or abandonment-driven reforestation, and seldom test whether identified opportunities are consistent with plausible future land-use trajectories. Here, we develop a European-scale framework that jointly maps present-day suitability and future probability of forest rewilding. Suitability is assessed via a multi-criteria analysis aggregating spatial metrics representing elements of ecological value, feasibility, threat exposure. Probability is estimated by combining different scenario outcomes (2020-2050), spanning IPCC Shared Socio-economic Pathways and IPBES Nature Futures, into a cross-scenario agreement index. We estimated that high suitability areas cover 26.2% of Europe's forest and mosaic domain, clustering in mountain and upland systems. Although ∼595,000 km² shows rewilding in at least one scenario, cross-scenario agreement is rare, revealing that most outcomes depend on governance choices rather than emerging spontaneously. Integrating both layers isolates priority areas where high suitability and probability coincide and broader landscapes where targeted policy could unlock opportunities for more natural and wild forests. These distinctions support the differentiated spatial targeting needed under the EU Biodiversity Strategy for 2030 and the Nature Restoration Regulation, helping identify where rewilding is best supported across divergent futures, where intervention could tip the balance, and where ecological constraints warrant caution.