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    Area of Science:

    • Global Security
    • Biotechnology
    • Existential Risk Studies

    Background:

    • Advanced biotechnologies, including potential bioweapons, present a growing threat to human existence.
    • The low probability of extinction-level events does not negate their potential impact due to the catastrophic consequences for all future generations.

    Purpose of the Study:

    • To provide an overview of biotechnological extinction risk.
    • To estimate the potential severity of these risks.
    • To compare the cost-effectiveness of mitigating extinction-level risks versus smaller-scale biosecurity concerns.

    Main Methods:

    • Qualitative overview of biotechnological extinction risks.
    • Quantitative estimation of risk severity (initial).
    • Cost-effectiveness analysis comparing different risk mitigation strategies.

    Main Results:

    • Reducing human extinction risk from bioweapons can be more cost-effective than addressing smaller-scale risks.
    • Even conservative estimates indicate significant value in mitigating existential threats.
    • Current biosecurity efforts may not adequately address the scale of potential biotechnological threats.

    Conclusions:

    • Biotechnological extinction risks are substantial and should not be underestimated.
    • Increased investment and effort in preventing worst-case bioweapon scenarios are warranted.
    • Mitigating existential risks offers a high return on investment in global security.