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Published on: April 3, 2014
Projected climate change impacts in rainfall erosivity over Brazil
André Almagro1, Paulo Tarso S Oliveira2, Mark A Nearing3
1Federal University of Mato Grosso do Sul, CxP 549, Campo Grande, MS, 79070-900, Brazil. andre.almagro@gmail.com.
Climate change significantly impacts rainfall erosivity across Brazil, with potential increases up to 109% in the Northeast and South by 2040. Projections also indicate future decreases in other regions, affecting soil and water resources.
Area of Science:
- Environmental Science
- Climate Science
- Soil Science
Background:
- Climate change poses significant risks to soil erosion, with potential economic, social, and environmental consequences.
- Continental-scale assessments of climate change impacts on soil erosion remain understudied.
Purpose of the Study:
- To assess the influence of climate change on rainfall erosivity across Brazil.
- To estimate and map projected changes in rainfall erosivity under different climate scenarios.
Main Methods:
- Utilized observed rainfall data and downscaled climate model outputs (HadGEM2-ES, MIROC5) under Representative Concentration Pathways 4.5 and 8.5.
- Estimated and mapped current and future rainfall erosivity across Brazil.
Main Results:
- Mean observed rainfall erosivity (1980-2013) was 10,437 MJ mm ha⁻¹ yr⁻¹.
- Projected increases in rainfall erosivity up to 109% by 2040 in northeastern and southern Brazil.
- Projected decreases in rainfall erosivity up to -71% by 2099 in southeastern, central, and northwestern Brazil.
Conclusions:
- Climate change is projected to alter rainfall erosivity patterns significantly across Brazil.
- Findings are crucial for informing soil and water conservation strategies.
- Results contribute to planning for water and food security in Brazil.
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