Related Experiment Video
Updated: Feb 24, 2026

Watershed Planning within a Quantitative Scenario Analysis Framework
Published on: July 24, 2016
Identification of potential impacts of climate change and anthropogenic activities on streamflow alterations in the
Lianqing Xue1,2,3,4, Fan Yang5, Changbing Yang6
1Hydrology and Water Resources College, Hohai University, Nanjing, 210098, P.R. China. lqxue@hhu.edu.cn.
Abstract:
Understanding contributions of climate change and human activities to changes in streamflow is important for sustainable management of water resources in an arid area. This study presents quantitative analysis of climatic and anthropogenic factors to streamflow alteration in the Tarim River Basin (TRB) using the double mass curve method (DMC) and the Budyko methods. The time series (1960~2015) are divided into three periods: the prior impacted period (1960~1972) and the two post impacted periods, 1973~1986 and 1987~2015 with trend analysis. Our results suggest that human activities played a dominant role in deduction in the streamflow in TRB with contribution of 144.6% to 120.68% during the post impacted period I and 228.68% to 140.38% during the post impacted period II. Climatic variables accounted for 20.68%~44.6% of the decrease during the post impacted period I and 40.38% ~128.68% during the post impacted period II. Sensitivity analysis indicates that the streamflow alteration was most sensitive to changes in landscape parameters. The aridity index and all the elasticities showed an obvious increasing trend from the upstream to the downstream in the TRB. Our study suggests that it is important to take effective measures for sustainable development of eco-hydrological and socio-economic systems in the TRB.
Related Concept Videos
What is Climate?
Global Climate Change
Responses to Drought and Flooding
Design Example: Analyzing Capacity Contours for Flood Risk Assessment
Adaptations that Reduce Water Loss
Threats to Biodiversity

