Related Experiment Video
Updated: Feb 15, 2026

Soil Lysimeter Excavation for Coupled Hydrological, Geochemical, and Microbiological Investigations
Published on: September 11, 2016
Hydrological simulation and uncertainty analysis using the improved TOPMODEL in the arid Manas River basin, China
Lianqing Xue1,2,3,4, Fan Yang5, Changbing Yang6
1Hydrology and Water Resources College, Hohai University, Nanjing, 210098, P. R. China. lqxue@hhu.edu.cn.
Abstract:
Understanding the mechanism of complicated hydrological processes is important for sustainable management of water resources in an arid area. This paper carried out the simulations of water movement for the Manas River Basin (MRB) using the improved semi-distributed Topographic hydrologic model (TOPMODEL) with a snowmelt model and topographic index algorithm. A new algorithm is proposed to calculate the curve of topographic index using internal tangent circle on a conical surface. Based on the traditional model, the improved indicator of temperature considered solar radiation is used to calculate the amount of snowmelt. The uncertainty of parameters for the TOPMODEL model was analyzed using the generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) method. The proposed model shows that the distribution of the topographic index is concentrated in high mountains, and the accuracy of runoff simulation has certain enhancement by considering radiation. Our results revealed that the performance of the improved TOPMODEL is acceptable and comparable to runoff simulation in the MRB. The uncertainty of the simulations resulted from the parameters and structures of model, climatic and anthropogenic factors. This study is expected to serve as a valuable complement for widely application of TOPMODEL and identify the mechanism of hydrological processes in arid area.
Related Concept Videos
The Uncertainty Principle
Uncertainty in Measurement: Reading Instruments
Uncertainty: Overview
Uncertainty in Measurement: Significant Figures
Uncertainty: Confidence Intervals
Propagation of Uncertainty from Random Error

